2020, Q3 and Q4. We will muddle along and keep trying to open facilities regardless of a vaccine. Across the country there are up to 60% of facilities open (in some way or form) doing 25-75% of their normal business, at less profit as they figure out rent, cleaning costs, getting employees back to work and other details of running a daily business
2021 A vaccine is critical, we can’t get back on track till a working vaccine allows for people to go “out.” We are a community of people who flock and gather and the current “stay in place” is not working for most people. Manufacturers and Distributors who are in Retail have stayed alive and are surviving (thriving).
There is very little wholesale buying from the spa channel and only to fill in products as needed, not to fill shelves. Many facilities are waiting to see what the next stimulus looks like so they can plan for future dollars. The extra $600 per week has hurt the ability of many spas to get staff back to work who make no bones about staying unemployed to collect the benefit, which ends July 31.
If/when we get a Vaccine, if government monies come through, if the stock market stays healthy, if the real estate business stays strong (and 13 other things to difficult to explain), we will see a reopening of our industry (and the rest of the world) and expect the spa channel to get back to “normal” in 2022. Next year we would hope to see our industry back to 75%.
In summary; nothing is written in stone, all bets are off and other pithy expressions. The spas that are open are doing amazing. We just need more of our total economy to get open!